The 2018 NFL Draft – Some Packers Trade Thoughts

April 17, 2018

Trading Up in the 1st Round

 

The Packers pick 14th overall in the first round, but what if they want to trade up to get a player? Here’s an estimation of what the Packers may need to give up to get to a higher position in this year’s first round:

Trading Down in the 1st Round

 

If the Packers elect to trade down from the14th overall pick in the first round, here’s an estimation of what the Packers may get in return:

Note: I used my own draft trade value chart to create the above tables. There are draft trade value charts which are widely available on internet sites – the most frequently quoted / re-used chart being the one created by Jimmy Johnson back in his Dallas days. Over the years, I have found that “Jimmy Johnson chart” to be reasonably accurate but requires an update – for example it doesn’t account for the last changes in the CBA re contract lengths (see next paragraph) nor does it account for the value of picks from the following year’s draft being thrown into trades.

                                                                                     

2nd Round - Further Trade thoughts

 

    The value of the 33rd pick is significantly lower than that of the 32nd pick. Why? Because that 33rd pick falls into the second round and the contract for that player doesn’t include the 5th year option that goes with being a 1st round draft pick. Therefore, if the Packers were to opt to trade out of the first round from #14, then the compensation for doing so would be significantly higher than that for the 32nd pick shown in the table above.

 

    This of course works both ways, if the Packers wanted to try and trade up from their second round pick (45th overall) into the late 1st round, the compensation they would likely have to give up would be significant. For example, to move up just 15 places to get to 30th overall, they likely would have to give up their 2nd round pick (#45) and probably a 3rd round pick and a 4th round pick.

 

The Extra Significance of the Kizer-Randall Trade

 

    One of the things that may have been missed in the trade that brought DeShone Kizer to the Packers and sent Damarious Randall to the Browns was the swapping of draft pick positions in the fourth and fifth round. Most significantly, that swapping of draft choices gave the Packers the very first pick in the fourth round of the draft…why so significant? Because it’s also the very first pick of the third day of the draft. This means that all teams will have been able to pause overnight and re-assess where they are, what they have and what their remaining needs are before that fourth round begins.

 

    This means that first pick on day 3 is fertile trade ground - the Packers can therefore expect to get some phone calls and likely some trade offers over and above the normal value of that pick.

For example, under “normal” circumstances a team picking midway

 

 through the 4th round would likely have to give up that pick plus a 5th round pick to get to the first pick in the fourth round. I would expect that the Packers would be able to use leverage to get slightly more than that in compensation for making that trade.

 

Find Peter on twitter here: @The_IT_Hedgehog

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