Quick Take - Packers 53 Man Roster – Prognostications and Surprises

September 5, 2018

In the days leading up to last Saturday, many reporters, analysts and fans predicted what they thought the Packers final 53 man roster would look like. So, I took quick at how many of these prognosticators did by saving their predictions and then comparing them to the real thing.

 

No Surprises - The 100 Percenters

    The following 38 players made the 53 man roster and appeared in 100% of the predictions that I saw (this list is pretty much as you would expect): Rodgers, Kizer, Williams, Montgomery, D.Adams, Cobb, Allison, Valdes-Scantling, Graham, Lewis, Bakhtiari, Taylor, Linsley, McCray, Bulaga, Spriggs, Patrick, Daniels, Clark, Wilkerson, Lowry, M.Adams, Matthews, Perry, Gilbert, Martinez, Burks, Morrison, King, Williams, Alexander, Jackson, House, Clinton-Dix, Brice, Jones, Crosby and Scott.

 

Almost Certainties

    The following 8 players who made the roster appeared in more than 60% of the predictions: OLB Kyler Fackrell (93%), WR J’Mon Moore (86%), WR Trevor Davis (71%), WR Equanimeous St. Brown (71%), OT Byron Bell (71%), WR Jake Kumerow (64%), TE Lance Kendricks (64%) and TE Robert Tonyan (64%)

 

Big Surprises – The Zero Percenters

    In all of the predictions that I saw, nobody (0%) predicted that either OT Alex Light or ILB James Morrison would make the roster. They can be considered the biggest surprises of all.

 

More Surprises

    The following 3 players appeared in less than 50% of the predictions, are therefore can be considered as surprises to have made the roster: CB Herb Waters** (7%), LS Hunter Bradley* (36%) and Raven Greene** (43%).

* 57% predicted that Zach Triner would stick as the long-snapper.

**50% predicted that Quentin Rollins would make it at cornerback/safety. 29% predicted Demetri Goodson and 29% also predicted Marwin Evans.

 

Surprised They Didn’t Make It

    As per the predictions, the following 4 players appeared pretty certain to make the final roster, but did not: FB Aaron Ripkowski (86%), OT Kyle Murphy (79%), OLB Vince Biegel (79%) and ILB Ahmad Thomas (64%). They can therefore be considered the biggest surprises not to have made the roster.

    In fairness to all of those that predicted Murphy would make the roster, the extent of his injury that saw him being placed on the waived/injured list was probably not known at the time of the predictions being made.

 

Conundrum Position 1 - Wide Receiver

    The Packers keeping 8 wide receivers threw everybody. Nobody (0%) predicted that would happen. However, 93% of predictions DID have the Packers keeping 7 which is a good effort considering the Packers haven’t kept 7 in a number of years.

 

Conundrum Position 2 - Tight End

    The Packers keeping 4 tight ends was a mild surprise to many – with only 36% predicting that this would happen.

 

Conundrum Position 3 – Running Back

    Very few saw the Packers keeping just 2 running backs – only 21%. If you throw the fullback into that mix, then nobody (0%) predicted 2 running backs and no fullbacks.

 

The Predictors

50-53 Correct = 0%

49 Correct = 7%

48 Correct = 7% (cumulative 14% with 48 or more)

47 Correct = 7% (cumulative 21% with 47 or more)

46 Correct = 36% (cumulative 57% with 46 or more)

45 Correct = 36% (cumulative (93% with 45 or more)

44 Correct = 7% (cumulative 100% with 44 or more)

43, or less, Correct = 0%

 

Find Peter on twitter here: @The_IT_Hedgehog

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